Ghana’s strong dependence on Dubai as the main destination for its gold exports could place renewed pressure on the cedi as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupt trade routes.
The conflict involving Iran and its regional adversaries has led to the closure of several airspaces across the Middle East, significantly affecting air cargo routes used to transport gold from Ghana to Dubai.
Data from the Ghana Gold Board shows that more than 72% of Ghana’s small-scale gold exports are shipped to Dubai, making the emirate the country’s most important market for the trade. In 2025 alone, Ghana exported about 103,804 kilograms of small-scale gold, with Dubai accounting for the majority of the shipments.
The disruption of flights into the Gulf region has slowed the movement of gold consignments, which could affect the steady inflow of foreign currency that helps stabilise the Ghanaian cedi. Over the past year, strong gold exports have supported the local currency as export proceeds from the metal brought a steady supply of dollars into the economy.
Analysts say Ghana’s reliance on Dubai is partly due to regulatory limitations in the country’s small-scale mining sector. Without a comprehensive traceability system, much of the gold produced by artisanal miners struggles to meet strict sourcing standards required by markets such as Switzerland and the United States. As a result, traders often rely on Dubai, where scrutiny over supply chains is considered less stringent.
The current disruptions could therefore affect not only shipments to Dubai but also exports to other destinations. In some cases, gold destined for India, Ghana’s second-largest market for small-scale gold, is routed through Dubai, meaning logistical challenges in the emirate could impact a large share of the country’s exports.
In response, the Ghana Gold Board is reportedly exploring alternative export markets and routes to reduce dependence on the Middle East. India is being considered as one of the immediate options should disruptions persist.
For now, the cedi remains relatively stable, trading at around GH¢10.79 to the US dollar, but economists warn that prolonged disruptions to gold exports could intensify pressure on the currency.
If the conflict continues to affect regional logistics, Ghana may be forced to accelerate efforts to diversify its gold export markets and strengthen supply chain verification systems.
